Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.030777 0.035018 0.039651 0.045092 0.051311 0.058203 0.066429
2025-02-09 0.024669 0.030569 0.037602 0.046620 0.057899 0.071575 0.089466
2025-02-16 0.020650 0.027093 0.035234 0.046309 0.061036 0.080019 0.106468
2025-02-23 0.018040 0.024797 0.033753 0.046544 0.064430 0.088685 0.124296
2025-03-02 0.015777 0.022570 0.031950 0.045918 0.066321 0.095230 0.139652
2025-03-09 0.014430 0.021398 0.031382 0.046824 0.070286 0.104884 0.160306
2025-03-16 0.012952 0.019835 0.030031 0.046349 0.072042 0.111326 0.176677
2025-03-23 0.012181 0.019230 0.030002 0.047807 0.076805 0.122690 0.201818
2025-03-30 0.010855 0.017611 0.028229 0.046298 0.076636 0.126159 0.214397
2025-04-06 0.009894 0.016470 0.027086 0.045658 0.077759 0.131733 0.230954
2025-04-13 0.008845 0.015081 0.025398 0.043915 0.076796 0.133630 0.241198
2025-04-20 0.008501 0.014846 0.025607 0.045426 0.081593 0.145877 0.271197
2025-04-27 0.008162 0.014601 0.025799 0.046968 0.086675 0.159274 0.305113
2025-05-04 0.007836 0.014351 0.025960 0.048469 0.091843 0.173370 0.342039
2025-05-11 0.007281 0.013628 0.025193 0.048152 0.093512 0.180997 0.367026
2025-05-18 0.006857 0.013107 0.024748 0.048396 0.096269 0.190955 0.397787
2025-05-25 0.006362 0.012404 0.023893 0.047745 0.097159 0.197253 0.421563
2025-06-01 0.006099 0.012131 0.023840 0.048687 0.101375 0.210704 0.462130
2025-06-08 0.005698 0.011547 0.023123 0.048193 0.102526 0.217844 0.489568
2025-06-15 0.005540 0.011443 0.023359 0.049711 0.108117 0.234998 0.541552
2025-06-22 0.005090 0.010692 0.022203 0.048139 0.106781 0.236844 0.558209
2025-06-29 0.004764 0.010176 0.021494 0.047473 0.107392 0.243073 0.585919
2025-07-06 0.004364 0.009468 0.020318 0.045658 0.105202 0.242677 0.597439